July was a busy month for anyone who plans freight movements in South Africa. Transnet put numbers on its recovery at the SAPICS conference, the Port of Cape Town went to market for a 25-year private partner, and a Stellenbosch University study priced the cost of border congestion for the first time in a while.

Taken together, the picture is one of measurable improvement in some places and unchanged friction in others. Planning as though the whole system is fixed would be a mistake. So would planning as though nothing has moved.

Rail and the 180-million-tonne target

Transnet group chief executive Michelle Phillips told the 48th SAPICS Conference in Cape Town on 22 July that rail volumes reached around 167.9 million tonnes in the past financial year, and that the target remains 180 million tonnes.

She was candid about the balance sheet. "We pay R15 billion in interest a year," Phillips said, adding that profits are currently wiped out by interest costs and depreciation. She also placed the start of the decline in 2018, before Covid, which matters because it means the recovery is undoing eight years of underinvestment rather than a pandemic dip.

The 11 private freight operators approved earlier this year are onboarding now. Some are expected to run before the end of 2026, others during 2027, with a combined 20 to 24 million tonnes a year of additional capacity expected as they come up to speed.

What this means for a shipper: rail slots on the main corridors will become genuinely biddable over the next 18 months, and the negotiating position of a shipper with clean, verifiable volume data will be much stronger than one working off estimates. If you have not modelled a rail leg for your bulk or long-haul flows since 2023, the answer you got then is out of date.

Ports: Durban up, Cape Town out to tender

The World Bank's 2025 Container Port Performance Index, reported in mid-June, ranked Durban the most improved port in the world. Berth utilisation rose from about 52% in 2024 to around 76% in 2025, and waiting vessels dropped from 20 to zero compared with peak-congestion years.

UKZN's Dr Ntokozo Nzimande put the appropriate caveat on it. "Yes, we are the most improved, but that is because we were among the worst in 2023," he said. "We are still performing poorly, but there has been some improvement." The ICTSI 25-year concession at Durban Container Terminal Pier 2, awarded in December 2025, targets capacity of 2.8 million TEUs, up from 2 million.

Cape Town is at an earlier stage. On 17 July 2026, Transnet National Ports Authority issued a request for proposals for a private partner to redevelop and operate the multipurpose terminal under a 25-year concession, covering berths B, C and D. A non-compulsory bidders' briefing is set for 6 August 2026, with submissions closing 20 November 2026. This follows separate calls on the liquid bulk and cold storage terminals.

Research commissioned by the Western Cape government found that a more efficient Port of Cape Town could support roughly R6 billion in additional exports, nearly 20 000 jobs and more than R1.6 billion in additional tax revenue. Transnet has committed R3.4 billion in capital investment at the port.

For exporters, especially in fruit and wine, the practical consequence is that Cape Town's step change is a 2027 and 2028 event, not a 2026 one. Build your export windows on current performance and treat the concession as upside.

What this changes for your 2026/27 plan

Border posts are the part of the network that has not moved. Research by Carla Meyer and Johann van Rensburg of Stellenbosch University, presented at the 44th Southern African Transport Conference and reported on 23 July, put the cost of congestion at Lebombo, Beitbridge, Groblersbrug and Vioolsdrift at R15 billion to R16 billion a year.

Trucks lose about 68 000 hours a week at those four crossings. Average delays run from seven to 70 hours, with Beitbridge exceeding 57 hours. A 20-hour delay costs roughly R25 165 for a tautliner and R22 897 for a refrigerated vehicle. The researchers traced the congestion to inconsistent processing times, fragmented border management, manual documentation and poor coordination between neighbouring authorities. Beitbridge handles more than 14 500 tonnes of freight a day and still queues.

Three practical moves for the current fiscal year.

Re-run your modal split with 2026 rail performance rather than 2022 assumptions, and get your volume data clean enough to negotiate with a private operator.

Price border variance into your SADC service commitments explicitly, using hours rather than a general contingency, and check whether pre-clearance is available on your lanes.

Decide which of your ports risk is structural and which is timing. Durban's improvement is real but partial. Cape Town's is contracted, not yet delivered.

OptiChain Solutions works with South African operators on network design, modal strategy and warehouse process improvement. If your 2026/27 plan is still built on 2023 assumptions, that is worth a conversation.

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